Anthropic is raising a funding round, priced at ~$900B (we think). Having done this for 8+ years, no hype cycle has come close. The last week has been insane. Here’s what I’ve seen:
- Every family office, LP, or remotely plausible allocator I know has gotten pinged by at least a dozen brokers offering blocks of shares. All different terms, all different structures, wildly variable pricing.
- Equally, every LP I know is laser-focused on Anthropic, pinging every broker and GP they know. I’ve not seen this much single-mindedness in my career.
- There are HUNDREDS of brokers offering blocks around, sometimes with no actual blocks, just brokers who know other brokers who might have remote connectivity to the funds (or sometimes just a guy) who might get an allocation from the company.
- The size of potential commitments is staggering. Family offices and other allocators are willing to commit hundreds of millions to Anthropic. Sight unseen. That’s in part because Anthropic may be a generational company that can generate multiples of their net worth… but they also expect to sell these blocks down over time in the secondaries market, which they anticipate will remain incredibly lucrative for months after this round gets allocated.
- The pricing of these blocks is extraordinary. The same broker will offer you three different fees on three different threads, then drop the fees on you three times on the same thread.
- There are no villains here, there are structural reasons why this is happening, and there is a LOT of money to be made by even being a small part of the ecosystem.
What’s going on right now? How do you navigate it as an investor? How do you “validate” a block? What should you be doing right now?
I don’t have all the answers, but after $7B in pre-IPO deals, I know how to make sense of which deals are real, which deals work, and which deals are a waste of your time and capital.
To LPs, family offices, and allocators (and those who advise them): feel free to reach out if you would like to discuss Anthropic. I can help you make sense of what’s going on.